2026 Team & Individual Preview by Sectional
By Rob Sherrill for the IWCOA
A way-too-early look ahead at the state tournament
A season that has flown by finds us just over one week away from the regionals – the start of the postseason. So we decided to take a first glance at what the state tournament fields could look like, both in the team state series and the individual stats series.
Since state qualifying at both levels occurs at the sectional level, this will be a 30,000-foot view from each sectional, in each of the three classifications, based on the rankings through matches of Tuesday, Jan. 20.
Since the top-ranked team in each regional wins the team title – and advances to the dual-team sectionals – about 90% of the time, we’ve identified which Top 25 team is the highest-ranked in the regional in which it competes. However, as you can see from looking at the team sectional breakdowns, a team not in the top 25 will win at least one regional in each of the three classifications, as of Jan. 20. So spots are still available. Which team, and which regionals, will those be? We’ll find out on Jan. 31.
The individual breakdowns provide a similar road map. In each classification, we’ve identified the ranked wrestlers, including honorable mentions, within each sectional at each of the 14 weight classes. If you want to see what the state tournament field at the State Farm Center is most likely to look like, here’s your first glance at it. These represent our best information regarding which weight class a wrestler is likely to compete at, based on their match history. Wrestlers who are injured or have yet to wrestle a match are not included.
Four wrestlers qualify for the state tournament from each sectional at each weight class. So, as you can see, some weight classes at some sectionals are stacked, based on the rankings, while others are so thin that four ranked wrestlers have not yet been discovered. We’ve identified those weight classes where spots are available – which means that one or more unranked wrestlers will break through to earn a state tournament berth. Not on this list? It may not mean anything right now. Rather, it will mean a great deal on Feb. 14, when the individual sectionals conclude. Expect, also, that some movement between weight classes will occur to fill those gaps.
So, for your reading pleasure, here’s our best guess at where things stand at the moment. How much will they change? Probably not a lot, but they’re guaranteed to change some. And that’s what makes the daily flyover so much fun.